Impacts of climate change on human mobility and immobility

The increasing impact of climate change on human mobility and immobility, coupled with misleading narratives, highlights the urgency for comprehensive research on climate-induced migration patterns.

These are findings of a study by a team of scientists led by Nicholas Simpson, a senior research fellow for the Climate and Sustainability Programme at the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) and associate at the University of Cape Town’s (UCT) African Climate and Development Initiative (ACDI). Simpson worked with a team of scientists, including researchers from the ACDI. Their findings were published in the international journal, One Earth.

Researchers Petra Holden, Andreas Meyer, and Christopher Trisos from the ACDI contributed to the research, emphasising the importance of understanding the role of nature-based adaptation in human mobility and immobility in relation to climate risk, and the need for more in-depth research in addressing the challenges posed by climate change.

Impacts of climate change on migration

As climate change continues to escalate, its impacts on the movement and settlement of people become more pronounced. Extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and resource scarcity are factors driving populations to relocate or become trapped in vulnerable areas. However, alongside these tangible effects, false but influential narratives about mobility often distort public understanding and policy making.

Drawing on expertise from the ACDI’s Towards Equitable & Sustainable Nature-Based Solutions (TES NbS) project and the Climate Risk Lab, the new research highlights the need to understand how mobility can reduce risk from climate change and under what conditions it can be a potentially effective adaptation option while also underscoring the necessity of integrating adaptation into development planning, particularly highlighting the needs of the Global South.

“The research underscores the necessity of integrating adaptation into development planning.”

The authors stress the need for comprehensive research to understand climate mobility, considering not just physical movement but also social, economic, and political factors. This research, incorporating diverse perspectives, can inform policies to mitigate the impacts of climate-induced migration. Integrating climate action with development efforts, especially in resource-constrained areas, is crucial. Ensuring consistent access to essentials like food, water, healthcare, and education strengthens resilience to climate change. Recognising the benefits of blending development plans with both adaptation and emission reduction is essential for enhancing people’s well-being.

Climate-resilient development

Supporting climate-resilient development and addressing climate mobility involves investing in local climate adaptation and community-led solutions. This approach, vital for integrating adaptation into broader development, requires committed financing. Yet, there’s a knowledge gap regarding how climate mobility-related actions align with wider development priorities, like health, and gender equality and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) more generally. Environmental degradation prompts mobility, with people adapting through movement.

“The research underscores the necessity of integrating adaptation into development planning, particularly highlighting the needs of the Global South,” explained Trisos, the director of the Climate Risk Lab and lead author of the Africa chapter for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).

The role of nature-based adaptation

Nature-based approaches (NbA), which protect ecosystems while benefiting well-being, show promise in supporting climate-resilient development. However, poorly implemented NbA can lead to injustices, restricting access to resources or forcing displacement. Balancing environmental benefits with the needs and rights of local communities is key to successful climate-resilient development.

“We need a greater understanding of the role of NbA (such as conservation agriculture, wetland restoration or sustainable grazing practices) in influencing immobility and mobility decisions. An understanding of the role of NbA in reducing climate risk considering the full trans-local nature of these systems is needed to inform transformative approaches for implementation (ie, how to use NbA to reduce risk sustainably and equitably across these systems),” said Dr Holden.

It’s important to grasp how climate change affects biodiversity and how this relates to the impact of NbA on people and ecosystems to improve NbA outcomes for mobility. Understanding how climate-related movement and biodiversity will interact in the future is key for making better decisions about NbA that are fair and sustainable. However, while many agree that losing biodiversity will harm ecosystems and their benefits, climate mobility forecasts often don’t consider how biodiversity might change. Bridging the gap between climate-related movement and biodiversity predictions is urgently needed.

“Understanding how biodiversity will change in areas projected to receive migrants affected by climate impacts is crucial to increase the potential for mobility to deliver positive adaptation outcomes.”

“When biodiversity declines, vital ecosystem services are lost or degraded. Therefore, understanding how biodiversity will change in areas projected to receive migrants affected by climate impacts is crucial to increase the potential for mobility to deliver positive adaptation outcomes,” noted Meyer, a postdoctoral researcher at the ACDI. “Moreover, efforts to protect species and ecosystems may not succeed if they ignore how humans will respond to climate change. Anticipating how climate mobility and biodiversity conservation are likely to interact in the future is critical to better understanding risks, improving decision-making, and informing adaptive ecosystem management for both people and nature.”

Future research priorities in climate mobility

The urgency of this research cannot be overstated, as climate change increasingly shapes the global landscape and challenges traditional notions of mobility and immobility. Addressing this complex issue requires interdisciplinary collaboration and a commitment to uncovering the multifaceted realities of climate mobility.

“Only through comprehensive and balanced research can we develop effective strategies to support communities affected by climate change and build more resilient societies for the future,” explained Simpson.

“This research highlights key research priorities for harnessing NbA to support positive mobility including; developing adaptation strategies that consider the full range of NbA and mobility limits for trans-local livelihoods; improving the integration of social science methods in these strategies; understanding appropriate finance mechanisms to support the interplay of NbA and climate mobility in risk reduction; and integrating climate mobility and biodiversity forecasts to anticipate how climate change impacts on biodiversity will interact with mobility and affect NbA,” concluded Holden.

This article was originally published by UCT News.