Publications

Peer-reviewed publications

Holden P, Ngoma G, Visser M, Amekudzic LK, Amekugbe M, Boahen E, Borurue E, Bostironnois A, Dorda S, Ekaig DE, Forbes C, Gordon C, Humphrey G, Lartey D, Mngumi L, Mugoe JW, New M, Obiero L, Ouma G, van Aardenne L, Walawege R, Wolski P. 2025. submitted. Unlocking innovation in climate services through meaningful co-production for nature-based solutions. PNAS. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6760437/v1

Stadler L, Benya S, Ziervogel G, Holden P. 2024. under revision. Integrating intersectionality into climate risk assessments: Review of gendered vulnerability in South Africa. WIRES Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.173152347.75935200/v1

Rebelo AJ, Glenday J, Holden PB, Gokool S, Gwapedza D, Metho P, Tanner J. 2025. Structural differences across hydrological models affect certainty of predictions of nature-based solution benefits. Ecological Modelling. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110940

Holden PB, Anderson M, Eckardt F, Ziervogel G, Jack SL, New MG, Smit J, Visser M, Hoffman MT. 2024. Importance of methodological pluralism in deriving counterfactuals for evidence-based conservation. Conservation Biology 38. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.14285

Simpson NP, Mach KJ, Tebboth MGL, Gilmore EA, Siders AR, Holden P, Anderson B, Singh C, Sabour S, Stringer LC, Sterly H, Williams PA, Meyer ALS, Cundill G, Rosengaertner S, Nunow A, Amakrane K, Trisos C. 2024. Research priorities for climate mobility. One Earth 7(4):589–607.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2024.02.002

Holden PB, Rebelo AJ, Wolski P, Odoulami R, Lawal K, Kimutai J, Nkemelang T, New MG. 2022. Nature-based solutions in mountain catchments reduce impact of anthropogenic climate change on drought streamflow. Communications Earth & Environment 3:51. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00379-9  

Rebelo AJ, Holden PB, Hallowes J, Eady B, Cullis J, Esler KJ, New MG. 2022. The hydrological impacts of restoration: a modelling study of alien tree clearing in four mountain catchments in South Africa. Journal of Hydrology 610. https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169422003468

Holden PB, Rebelo AJ, New MG. 2021. Mapping invasive alien trees in water towers: a combined approach using satellite data fusion, drone technology and expert engagement. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment 21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2020.100448

Holden PB, Ziervogel G, Hoffman TM, New MG. 2021. Transition from subsistence grazing to nature-based recreation: A nuanced view of land abandonment in a mountain social-ecological system, southwestern Cape, South Africa. Land Use Policy 105: 105429. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105429

Midgley SJE, Esler KJ, Holden PB, Rebelo AJ, Stuart-Hill SI, Cullis JDS, Methner N. 2021. Typologies of collaborative governance for scalable nature-based solutions in two strategic South African river systems. Ambio 50: 587–609. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-021-01531-z

Rebelo AJ, Gokool S, Holden PB, New MG. 2021. Can Sentinel-2 be used to detect invasive alien trees and shrubs in Savanna and Grassland Biomes? Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment 23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2021.100600

Rebelo AJ, Holden PB, Esler KJ, New MG. 2021. Benefits of water-related ecological infrastructure investments to support sustainable land use: a review of evidence from two critically stressed water management areas in South Africa. Royal Society Open Science 8(4): 201402. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.201402  

Sellberg MM, Cockburn J, Holden PB, Lam D. 2021. Towards a caring transdisciplinary research practice: navigating science, society and self. Ecosystems and People 17(1): 292–305. https://doi.org/10.1080/26395916.2021.1931452

Holden PB, Smit J. 2019. Accuracy of automatic aerial triangulation with bundle block adjustment on large historical image blocks in mountainous terrain. South African Journal of Geomatics 8(1): 12–29. http://sajg.org.za/index.php/sajg/article/view/617

Book chapters

Holden P, Cockburn J, Shackleton S, Rosenberg E. 2019. Supporting and developing competencies for transdisciplinary postgraduate research: A PhD scholar perspective. In Kremers KL, Liepins AS, York AM (Eds) Developing Change Agents: Innovative Practices for Sustainability Leadership. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Libraries Publishing. https://open.lib.umn.edu/changeagents/chapter/supporting-and-developing-competencies/

Technical research reports

Marthews T, Feeney C, Holden P, Onyeagoziri A. 2025. NbS-TISE: Nature-based solutions tool for assessing the full impact of soil erosion. UKCEH Internal Report for the NC-International Programme. https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/539194/1/N539194CR.pdf

Holden P, Hoffman T, Wolski P, Humphrey G, Onyeagoziri A, Visser V. 2024. Towards equitable and sustainable nature-based solutions in Southern Africa’s water towers (TES NbS): Final technical report. International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Grant Number: 109567–001. https://hdl.handle.net/10625/63535

Glenday J, Gokool S, Gwapedza D, Holden P, Rebelo A, Tanner J, Jumbi F, Metho P. 2022. Critical catchment model inter-comparison and model use guidance development. Water Research Commission.https://www.wrc.org.za/wp-content/uploads/mdocs/2927_Final%20Report.pdf

Popular articles

Holden P, New M. 2024. Working with nature to reduce the impacts of climate change. Frontiers for Young Minds: science for kids, edited by kids. https://kids.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frym.2024.1412419

Holden PB, Rebelo AJ, Wolski P, Odoulami RC, Lawal KA, Kimutai J, Nkemelang T, New MG. 2022. Clearing alien trees can help reduce climate change impact on Cape Town’s water supply. The Conversation. https://tinyurl.com/3wspj7he 

Rebelo AJ, Esler KJ, New MG, Holden PB. 2022. Removing alien plants can save water: we measured how much. The Conversation. https://tinyurl.com/yjw4a6u2 

Rebelo AJ, Le Maitre DC, New MG, Johnston P, Holden PB, Nkemelang T, Rebelo T. 2019. What science tells us about fire hazards facing Cape Town and its surrounds. The Conversation. https://tinyurl.com/2p9h375h 

Policy and practice briefs, including info-briefs and infographics and process outputs

Holden P. 2025. How do we know that nature-based solutions can contribute towards climate change adaptation? University of Cape Town. Infographic. https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.28644077.v1

Mokono K, Holden P, von Maltitz G, Nsikani M, Gambiza J, Kgope B, Turpie J, Abrams A, Arena G, Mathebula N, Mokoka V, Mugwedi L, Rebelo A. 2024. Research themes for Ecosystem-based Adaptation in South Africa. South African National Biodiversity Institute Policy Series. Policy Brief. https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.27370614.v2

Stadler L, Benya S, Ziervogel G, Holden P, Hoffman T. 2024. An intersectional climate risk framework: understanding gendered climate vulnerability in South Africa. University of Cape Town. Info-brief. https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.27716283.v1

Holden P, Hoffman T. 2024. Why do we need clear guidelines on how to achieve social equity in nature-based approaches? Infographic, https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.27073765.

Humphrey G, Hoffman T, Holden P. 2024. What are the main constraints to achieving social equity in nature-based approaches in the UMzimvubu? Infographic, english: http://doi.org/10.25375/uct.27073588; isiXhosa: http://doi.org/10.25375/uct.27073549.

Holden P, New M. 2024. Nature-based solutions can cushion the local impacts of climate change. Info-brief. https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.25718571.v1

Holden P, Hoffman T. 2024. Achieving social equity in nature-based solutions. Infographic. https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.25218395.v1  

Holden P, Hoffman T, Djenontin INS, Esler K, Gannon K, Humphrey G, Mbidzo M, Mtati N, New M, Ndlovu V, Razafimanantsoa AHI, Rebelo AJ, Savory S, Thorn JPR, Visser M, Ziervogel G. 2023. Stories of social (in)equity in nature-based solutions”. Storybook. https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.24720285.v1 

Glenday J, Rebelo AJ, Holden P, Metho P, Tanner JL, Gwapedza D, Gokool S, Jumbi F. 2023. Deep waters: How ignoring uncertainty in hydrological modelling increases water security risk. Policy Brief. https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.24658755.v1 

Blanckenberg M, Hoffman T, Holden P. 2022. What is needed in southern Africa to ensure equitable nature-based solutions. Workshop Summary. https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.22003904.v1    

Coldrey K, Cullis J, Esler K, Fold N, Gokool S, Hallowes J, Holden P, Methner N, Midgley S, New M, Olesen RS, Pasgaard M, Rasmussen LV, Rebelo A, Shackleton S. 2022. Ecological infrastructure for water and socio-economic security. Investment Brief. https://tinyurl.com/4bjk6yhj

Glenday J, Gokool S, Gwapedza D, Holden P, Rebelo A, Tanner J, Jumbi F, Metho P. 2022. Hydromodel SA Wiki: guidance for researchers and practitioners working on hydrological modelling projects in South Africa. Wikipedia Site. https://hydromodel-sa-wiki.saeon.ac.za/wiki/Main_Page  

Holden P, Hoffman T, Shackleton S. 2022. A focus on constraints and enablers of social equity in nature-based solutions can help to address societal challenges”. Framework and Infographic. https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.19354070.v2

Pasgaard M, Coldrey K, Cullis J, Esler K, Fold N, Gokool S, Hallowes J, Holden P, Methner N, Midgley S, New M, Olsen RS, Rasmussen LV, Rebelo A, Shackleton S. 2022. How can investment in ecological infrastructure increase water security and alleviate poverty? Policy Brief. https://tinyurl.com/bdynbe76

Datasets

Holden P, Rebelo AJ, Wolski P, Odoulami R, Lawal KA, Kimutai J, New MG. 2022. Nature-based solutions reduce impact of anthropogenic climate change on drought streamflow. Dataset and code.

Rebelo AJ, Gokool S, Holden PB. 2021. Mapping invasive alien trees and shrubs in strategic water source areas in the Umgeni Catchment. Spatial dataset. https://tinyurl.com/yny5ayc4  

Rebelo A, Holden P. 2020. Mapping land-use/land-cover in strategic water source areas in the Upper Berg and Breede Catchments. Spatial dataset. https://tinyurl.com/2ae9jbnb 

Holden P, Rebelo A. 2019. Mapping invasive alien trees in strategic water source areas in the Berg and Breede Catchments. Spatial dataset. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dM7dAnYCUsB3ia8yJT5Ph2iO374_azqI/view